Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 4.324154 5.084028 5.925069 6.923134 8.073313 9.355238 10.890234
2025-08-17 2.937933 3.892128 5.065246 6.605298 8.564553 10.963753 14.112960
2025-08-24 2.181142 3.198586 4.565223 6.515981 9.206103 12.758653 17.773138
2025-08-31 1.692953 2.712740 4.191401 6.458208 9.803386 14.506612 21.552940
2025-09-07 1.429462 2.473693 4.090848 6.725213 10.840845 16.936852 26.529500
2025-09-14 1.185645 2.203805 3.879301 6.764314 11.509745 18.874190 30.979218
2025-09-21 0.995317 1.977441 3.687017 6.784158 12.122357 20.761925 35.527069
2025-09-28 0.844038 1.785632 3.513241 6.794336 12.698462 22.627704 40.207955
2025-10-05 0.799821 1.784591 3.673285 7.404613 14.362997 26.440934 48.454161
2025-10-12 0.716754 1.688415 3.637565 7.644249 15.387620 29.256708 55.268775
2025-10-19 0.646110 1.603167 3.606894 7.883291 16.429677 32.192391 62.553271
2025-10-26 0.566020 1.480234 3.478374 7.905809 17.053475 34.420518 68.757660
2025-11-02 0.471752 1.307098 3.220707 7.636945 17.094746 35.616108 73.271027
2025-11-09 0.385764 1.134491 2.934290 7.263428 16.876838 36.298324 76.898850
2025-11-16 0.330721 1.027928 2.779968 7.157011 17.202447 38.076161 82.820524
2025-11-23 0.286395 0.939417 2.652465 7.090896 17.603015 40.038675 89.285756
2025-11-30 0.265452 0.912343 2.673322 7.380601 18.832510 43.834538 99.825445
2025-12-07 0.236078 0.852816 2.598959 7.422771 19.492991 46.476365 108.177137
2025-12-14 0.209729 0.795992 2.521395 7.444233 20.104782 49.065903 116.637486
2025-12-21 0.186411 0.742954 2.444547 7.455265 20.690661 51.648945 125.300692
2025-12-28 0.186237 0.769117 2.601040 8.119557 22.977818 58.289097 143.468973
2026-01-04 0.173453 0.747423 2.611523 8.380296 24.267103 62.735644 157.052485
2026-01-11 0.161718 0.726628 2.621221 8.640338 25.583840 67.359875 171.404068